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Fields: Macroeconomics, International Economics
Contact: htoma [at] umich [dot] edu
Job Market Paper
- “The Financial Propagation Mechanism of Commodity Booms” (with Walter Cuba)
Latest version
Abstract
We examine the financial propagation mechanism in small open economies (SOEs) that links commodity price booms to the non-commodity sector via banks. We propose a mechanism in which a commodity price boom leads to an increase in deposits from commodity exporters into domestic banks, enabling banks to expand their loan supply to non-commodity firms. Then, these non-commodity firms increase their output. Using detailed bank-firm-loan microdata from Peru—an SOE that experienced a commodity price boom in the 2000s—we provide empirical evidence supporting this mechanism. We then incorporate this mechanism into an SOE model with banks to quantify its aggregate importance. After calibrating the model to the Peruvian data, our simulations suggest that the mechanism explains one tenth of the observed 65% Peruvian GDP growth in the 2003–2011 commodity price boom episode.
Working Papers
- “Dynamic Models, New Gains from Trade?” (with Christoph E. Boehm, Andrei A. Levchenko and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar)
Latest version || CEPR DP 19148 || NBER WP 32565 - “Playing With Blocs: Quantifying Decoupling” (with Barthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Elliot Kang, Andrei A. Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar and Petia Topalova)
Latest version - “Cultural Proximity and Inter-Firm Trade” (with Brian C. Fujiy and Gaurav Khanna)
Revise and Resubmit, European Economic Review
Latest version || STEG WP 049 || UMich RSIE DP 686 - “Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience” (with Mathieu Pedemonte and Esteban Verdugo)
Revise and Resubmit, The Economic Journal
University of Michigan Best Third Year Paper Prize
Latest version || Cleveland Fed WP 23-04
Publications
- “Effects of a Mandatory Local Currency Pricing Law on the Exchange Rate Pass-Through” (with Renzo Castellares)
Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 106, September 2020
Published version || Final WP version || BIS WP 785